Growth in Ruby Jobs Relative to Java
A big thank you to Reg for linking to this graph. Update: Since David F. Glasser, one of DZone's preeminent Java bigots, was so easily threatened and flustered by a graph of this "relative" nature, here is the absolute version for comparison. Nobody is disputing the fact that there are significantly less jobs doing Ruby in the marketplace and no deception was intended in posting the relative version. In fact, I left off the commentary so that I would not be accused of "hyping". Guess that didn't work.
Oh, please.
Rate of growth means nothing without context. If go from 1 to 3, my rate of growth is 200%. If I go from 1000 to 1200, my rate of growth is 20%. Smaller rate? Sure. But if that's the number of available jobs that take advantage of a particular technology, the obvious correct place to focus your time and energy is with the lower growth rate technology. A person's time isn't infinite and you need to invest yours in the places that are more likely to pay off.
This reminds me of the time I heard the Trancendental Meditation Party call itself the "Fastest growing political party in the US". Care to bet me, say, $100,000 that their candidate won't win the presidency?
Posted by: TWR | January 27, 2008 at 12:09 AM
Ok, I will agree with this: this kind of comparison is very poor to say the least. On the other hand, let's keep up with the non-scientific toying and do a more 'fair' comparison. It is a fact that today, Rails is driving the Ruby job trends. Java has a much broader audience, going from mobile devices, to low-level system integration and a lot of other stuff that Rails doesn't cover.
If we stay at the niche in hand: Web Development, we have to compare Ruby against, for example, "java web" (with the quotes). This narrows down the Java job offers to the Web niche and the comparison becomes much more interesting. Just try it out.
The problem is the indeed.com (or other job trends website for that matter) doesn't have advanced drill down options enough to get a fair comparison.
Posted by: AkitaOnRails | January 27, 2008 at 01:57 AM
Akita,
Dice.com: "java web" - 632, java web - 8890. "Java web" is just funny. Even struts gets over 2000. Look at http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=ruby%2C+jsf%2C+wicket&l=&relative=1
Obie's graph means nothing, but dice.com numbers mean Rails is still a ghetto and must fight with PHP & Python, not Java.
Posted by: Chapaev | January 27, 2008 at 07:34 AM
And then again, as I said, this tells nothing, you're right. It is the same old argument again. I've seen this back in 1994. "Real programmers do C++, not Java". The market is the right size: it has enough good jobs for the amount of programmers available and both are growing up. The difference is that we don't have the same Internet Bubble as the one that started back in 1998 forward, so the growth will not be as dramatic, that's all.
Posted by: AkitaOnRails | January 28, 2008 at 02:39 AM
You know Rails advocates are getting desperate when they start using the same lines as the Linux crowd to defend the object of their affection...
So, Obie, will 2008 be the "Year of Rails"? That would complete the analogy :-)
Posted by: Observer | January 28, 2008 at 11:35 AM
@Observer: Please spare us the baloney.... Rails advocates are not desperate for anything.
Posted by: Obie Fernandez | January 28, 2008 at 11:51 AM
@Observer. Two things:
1) Ruby, Rails, Python or whatever don't HAVE to have the biggest share of the market. If it eventually gets it, so be it. Otherwise, there are good jobs popping up all the time for those that are capable of handling them.
2) You sound like a Java programmer? Just remember that once upon a time, people like Obie, myself and others passed through this same thing when Java was near nothing. You do know that it had to start from zero, more than 13 years ago. I was there. I remember when it was the C programmers that laughed at us. You have a job now because we stood on what we believed was very good at the time.
It is a chicken and egg situation: if everybody just wait until there is enough jobs available, who says the customers will make such jobs if they know there are no programmers available to take them? Someone has to start first. Once again, people like Obie are doing it. Again.
Posted by: AkitaOnRails | January 28, 2008 at 11:59 AM
No, I'm a RoR developer actually, and I enjoy making money off it. A few years ago, I was really hoping it would become mainstream, but I have given up now. I'll keep using as long as I can find jobs (pretty easy in the Bay Area, not so sure about the rest of the country), but I can switch to whatever is needed and fun whenever the RoR stream will dry up and I won't be bitter about it (a bit sad, though, I really like RoR).
Akita, you really seem to admire Obie a lot (you seem to see him as a visionary who's ahead of the curve and it's only a matter of months before everybody acknowledges that... right?). This kind of irrational feeling is dangerous to our profession. In my experience, technology (and people) are not worth falling in love for. Stay objective, it's the best favor you can do to your clients.
And Obie: you say you're not being defensive, but check out the topics of your posts this past month... Pretty telling, no?
Posted by: Observer | January 28, 2008 at 12:34 PM
@Observer, ok, sorry for the Java label. Not intended to be offensive as I am a former Java developer myself. And yes, I do admire Obie, but no I, do not take whatever he says as doctrine or something like that. I also don't agree with these graphs being a good argument for anything, my point was just that. I don't know if Rails will grow faster or not, and I don't really care. For that matter, I enjoy working with RoR. If tomorrow it dies, no hard feelings as well. For one, it will not be a sudden death, the kind that I will wake up one morning and find the Earth devastated. This kind of trend follow a more or less recognizable curve. You know that. And while I am doing RoR I do Love it. No one can be a good craftsman without loving his craft. You don't need to be paranoid about it. It's like what Yoda says: "Do it, or do not, there is no try". What will come tomorrow? Haskell, Erlang? Let them come. I've been through many technologies that died already. I saw languages and frameworks coming and going. None of them was the Messiah and none of them will be. That's all. No point in being a negativist.
Posted by: AkitaOnRails | January 28, 2008 at 01:44 PM
I don't think RoR will die any time soon, I just think it found its niche and it will plateau in that niche for a long time, not growing and not shrinking. I'm pretty sure it will die off way before Java does, though, and the recent backlashes of the kind that Twitter has inflicted upon the credibility of RoR (and the fact that Twitter has now moved away from RoR) certainly doesn't help.
[Obie's note: Twitter has not inflicted anything negative onto RoR lately, any problems they have are nothing to do with the web layer. It is also a blatant lie and FUD that Twitter has moved off of RoR and we should nip that one in the bud.]
As for the Java label, I certainly don't take it as an insult: I still program in Java every day and I like it just as much as RoR. I just think that RoR has a long way to go before it can catch up to Java both in terms of mindshare and technological achievements, and by now, I just don't think it will ever happen.
Still, RoR is a lot of fun to use, but more like a toy than a credible large scale environment.
Posted by: Observer | January 28, 2008 at 01:58 PM
The only real advantage that RoR provided over J2EE development was RAD. Frameworks such as Grails have proved that J2EE development can be done with significant productivity levels. Java developers will definitely stay with Java platform and RoR hype will fade with time.
Posted by: Manohar | January 28, 2008 at 02:20 PM
@Obie thanks for the post. Keep 'em coming and ignore the trolls :)
@TWR you're only looking at half of the supply/demand equation. Also, you apparently define the "payoff" as "getting a job". I define the payoff as minimizing the amount of effort to produce a given amount of value.
@Akita no need to apologize to Observer; I sense a troll. Anyone who would gladly program in Java after being exposed to Ruby didn't quite "get it" IMO. He's write about Java "lasting" though - I expect it will fare better than COBOL...
Posted by: Brian Adkins | January 28, 2008 at 10:08 PM
Brian, here is some food for thought for you: what if I *do* get it?
What if I'm just ahead of you?
I've done the full RoR thing and now I'm coming around. Maybe you will too. I know that I was certainly feeling very certain of myself a couple of years ago and Java couldn't look more boring to me back then.
After seven years programming in Ruby (yes, way before Rails), I feel a bit wiser, and I'm seeing strengths in both frameworks, but three intensive years of being submitted to RoR's weaknesses (there are a few) make me see Java's strengths in a new light.
Put a reminder in your calendar for two years from now and let's have a chat then.
Posted by: Observer | January 28, 2008 at 11:55 PM
As Obie knows, Percentages don't mean much when you start from near zero, but they are still fun.
The relative growth always favors the newly emerging vs. the established. That said. Ruby has grown. Kudos!
However, the slope of Python relative growth is about 10% steeper for the same time period than Ruby's. PHP slope of growth was about 220% steeper than Ruby's. Double Kudos to Python.
Python/PHP guys were able to do this without posting on all of the Java forums, that Java sux and Python rulez.
So if there is a revolutions, it seems it is more of a PHP, Python revolution.... not so much a Ruby revolution. Although, I think Ruby did spur an interest in dynamic langauges and a lot of other good ideas (like getting rid of the metric ton of XML for configuration).
Of course the hype was not just about Ruby was it? It was about Rails... how does it do? If you look at the relative growth: it grew 6,000%!!! Holy crap man that is a lot of growth! Of course it started at near 0 in Sept 05., but still its something.
For example, the actual slope for JSF growth was larger than Rails. (Not that JSF is a direct competitor b/c its not.) 0.0001 to 0.042 vs. 0.016 to 0.08. Of course this is just one Java web framework and not the largest one.
I don't see anyone posting in every Java web framework forum and mailing list that "JSF rulez and your legacy framework blows!" either.
Hey to all the guys working with Rails and Ruby because you love it: Keep on keeping on! I am glad you found something you love.
I still prefer the Java world. I like the IDEs, OS projects, and the language. In the end, in ten years, 15 years, 20 years from now, who will care about this. We likely won't be programming in Ruby or Java. Neither will be cool or hip in 20 years.
Ruby and Rails brought a lot of conversation and ideas into programming languages and framework development. Kudos to the Ruby guys! Kudos to the Rails guys!
Now lets get back to work.
Posted by: Rick Hightower | January 29, 2008 at 02:51 AM
@Observer: Why are you posting anonymously? Very few people have been programming Ruby for 7 years. Probably even less have been programming Rails for an "intensive" three years -- hell, I can just barely say that about myself. I think you would be a lot more believable without the cloak of anonymity.
Posted by: Obie Fernandez | January 29, 2008 at 07:22 AM
@Obie,
Why does it matter? You want to look me up to check out my credentials? You won't find much about me, I'm mostly a lurker. I'm more of a user than a maker, if you will.
Ruby has been around for about 15 years, there are a lot more people who've been involved with it for seven years than you think. Ruby was already a cool language before RoR, especially as a sane replacement for Perl.
Posted by: Observer | January 29, 2008 at 12:07 PM
I really don't believe in divorce in technology. I don't have to be a 100% Java guy to like Java, nor I have to be 100% Ruby guy to love Ruby. I recently interviewed Adrian Holovaty for my Rails blog because I do like Django on Python (I bought both Adrian's and Obie's book in the same batch :-) It is undeniable that Rails left a good legacy in terms of ways to advance what was almost considered to be status quo. Web frameworks, in general, made great leaps forward because of this new trend. Spring evolved nicely. Grails is another good solution. Symphony grabbed ideas from both Rails and Django, and so on. What I don't think is necessary is Technology Wars all over again. Although it is inevitable that conflicts like this do happen. For the bad or for the good, some wars actually motivate people to speed up. I think Groovy and Grails obviously has a lot to thank Ruby and Rails because they didn't have to start from zero. That said, right now Ruby and Rails are great. I don't see myself in dealing professionally with other technologies any time soon. But I won't let myself be blinded, I never did. That's why I keep on understanding every bit of novelty and trends. I am learning some Django and Grails on the (few) free hours I have. And I keep on trying to evolve my Rails as well. On the long run it only benefits all of us. I prefer to write about union. Hey Rick, I do have to tell you that I didn't like your polemic blog post. Sun has nothing to lose by investing money and time on JRuby. I bet it is such a low amount anyway that the return on investment will come in spades. Scala can benefit from that. The JVM can evolve better once JRuby starts to be used in more production environments. Everybody wins. And again, going back to the original charts stuff: someone has to make the first move. 3 years is not a long time. Even Java only started to really fly after 1998. Of course, there were a lot of inertia involved in the beginning. Java had Sun to back it up and it did a lot of marketing investment to make it well known in enterprises and universities. Fortunately the plan worked. Ruby didn't have anything like that. Worst of all, it was virtually unknown before 2001. Circumstances are always different. There is no success recipe. I'll keep trying to help Rails grow faster here in Brazil, but it is really a tough thing to do without proper support. On the other hand its not that I am sacrificing myself on doing so. It is fun. And fun is important. I hope we can all talk about technology instead of politics in the near future. Cheers.
Posted by: AkitaOnRails | January 29, 2008 at 01:55 PM
polemic: "A controversial argument, especially one refuting or attacking a specific opinion or doctrine."
RE: Hey Rick, I do have to tell you that I didn't like your polemic blog post.
I am unrepentent. No apologies. You were not alone. I stick by it though. I own it. Sun is a company that has so much money to invest, it is not infinite. Groovy seemed like a better fit for the Java community.
In the Java world there is more support/interest in Groovy and Grails.
Whatever, the post is an opinion, my opinion. It has not changed. There are many voices and I have never been afraid to share mine. I think I am right.
UNLESS....
If the whole Ruby community switched to JRuby and runs Rails on the JVM, then Sun made the right choice and I was wrong. :o)
Is the whole Ruby community planning on switching to JRuby and Rails running on the JVM?
The JRuby book by Oli is not in the top ten Ruby books so....
What interest does the Ruby community have in running on the JVM? (Not a trick question)
RE: "I don't have to be a 100% Java guy to like Java, nor I have to be 100% Ruby guy to love Ruby. I recently interviewed Adrian Holovaty for my Rails blog because I do like Django on Python (I bought both Adrian's and Obie's book in the same batch :-) It is undeniable that Rails left a good legacy in terms of ways to advance what was almost considered to be status quo."
I agree 100%.
The point was not that Sun should not support Ruby, but there are so many better ways to spend the money that will help the Java community. Anyway... It is like being a side seat driver or Sunday morning quarterback. Maybe they have reasons that are beyond my grasp. For I am merely a rank and file developer.
I got up this morning wondering why one of the apps we released was running locally and on the integration server but not in QA. I deal with the day to day struggles of development, SCM, branches, releases, builds, tests, deployment, configuring databases, etc. It got fixed, but we are still not sure what the diff was. After long debugging and trouble shooting.... On top of that many felt like it was a fire drill release...
I just finished a large feature that I have been trying to work on for three days with many interuptions that will address 7 use cases. I got up from my keyboard at 7PM not realizing how much time elasped... all set to declare victory and show it off... looked around... and everyone went home. I still did a happy dance. I see defeat and victory every day. I program because I love it as I am sure Obie does as well. Anyway...
I hope Obie's book does very well. I know I will buy a copy.
We have preferences. I am not the Java/JSF/Spring/JPA/Groovy guy anymore than Obie is the Ruby/Rails guy. We are all just guys who love to program. Otherwise, we would be dentists or accountants or something.
--Cheers
Rick Hightower
Posted by: Rick Hightower | January 30, 2008 at 03:25 AM
I like Java and Ruby. I also like Groovy and Python. I even enjoyed C++ once :-)
I think Ruby is here to stay. And so is Java. There is no need to prefer one over the other. Ruby has advantages for some tasks, Java for others. I think the software community as a whole benefited a lot from Ruby and Rails. Many new frameworks and languages were inspired by it.
So why not learn all we can from Ruby (and Rails), even if we are full time Java programmers (as I am right now). Learning a lot about Ruby will make us better programmers. As would learning a lot about Groovy, Python or Erlang. And that can only be good.
Posted by: Markus Jais (codekite.com) | January 30, 2008 at 03:18 PM
Programming languages should evolve and arguably converge adopting the best features .Look at .Net(C#). Created as a mimic of java , its fast embracing features from dynamic languages (as of .net 3.5) .Java, i feel is still dragging its feet in this respect . java guys should strive to adopt superior language features of Ruby and Ruby guys can take advantage of the stable platform that the jvm provides (through jruby?)
Posted by: A Kunju | January 31, 2008 at 03:20 AM
give me a break. If I go out to Monster, Dice, and Hotjobs and query on RUBY and RAILS (2/1/2008) I get the following:
Monster 265 jobs
Dice 303 jobs
HotJobs 84 jobs
maybe it is growing, but it's anemic compared to the order of magnitude of Java, PHP, C/C++, etc.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ruby, but I'm not going to invest my career into it.
Posted by: Kevin | February 01, 2008 at 05:01 PM
I came across this thread after writing my own comparison of perl, python and php job trends. It shows the big difference between searches for "" and " developer". And that ~17% of job matches for a single word "ruby" search are actually false positives (over 10% due to the Ruby Tuesday restaurant chain).
I think many of you would find it interesting: http://blog.timbunce.org/2008/02/12/comparative-language-job-trend-graphs/
Posted by: Tim Bunce | February 12, 2008 at 04:21 PM
Your blog design is GREAT!!!!
Posted by: Mohsin Hijazee | February 13, 2008 at 01:07 AM